We are currently losing the battle to curb the growth in CO2 emissions. We continue to run up a huge import bill, around €6bn annually, while exposing ourselves to heavy fines for breaches of limits set at EU level.
Over the past two years, Ireland’s total emissions have increased by 7%. We are now back to levels last seen in 2009. This is simply not good enough.
Last week, the Climate Change Advisory Council issued a ‘call to arms’ report which included a recommendation that carbon taxes be increased substantially.
The council, which is chaired by John FitzGerald, also called for a rebalancing in transport expenditure away from roads and towards public transport. Presenting the report, Mr FitzGerald singled out for attention the large subsidies — just over €120m a year — handed over to the peat industry.
Of the €318m levied in 2015 on consumers of electricity, €121m was allocated to supporting peat production which is highly damaging from an environmental perspective.
At the same time, the country has been far too slow to diversify away from oil and gas when it comes to the heating of homes. Carbon sources heat up almost 40% of our homes.
Coincidentally, or otherwise, the Climate Action Minister, Denis Naughten announced, last week, that a nationwide ban on the sale of smoky coal would take effect in 2019.
It is 30 years since Mary Harney pushed through a prohibition on the use of smoky coal in urban areas, a move which was made in the face of considerable opposition from business and political interests, but whose implementation led to a big reduction in the prevalence of respiratory diseases. Change comes slowly in Ireland.
Mr Naughten has shown courage. His own rural and small town Roscommon constituency will be affected by the changes. The opposition to change is strong. Michael Healy-Rae TD has warned against attempts to push through pro-environment policies.
“You can only shove people so much — they will push back,” he told TV3 viewers days ago, echoing the protest politics that has such impact across the Western world. The Healy-Raes, in particular, know a thing or two about the business of harvesting votes by reaping the fruits of discontent.
Peat growers have proved themselves to be particularly stubborn adversaries, witness the success west of the Shannon of the ‘Ming’ Flanagan dynasty.
Mainstream politicians are still scalded after the water saga. It would be a pleasant surprise, indeed, if the climate change group’s proposals were to be implemented any time soon yet unthinking, unblinking resistance to change carries a huge, largely hidden price tag attached to it.
One analyst, Joseph Curtin, of the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA) has calculated that we could face fines of between €3.7bn and €5.5bn cumulatively by 2030 if no further action is taken to reduce emissions.
In some areas, progress is being made. Mr FitzGerald has insisted that the increased reliance on wind energy is acting to reduce the price of electricity to customers. Here, he is in disagreement with UCD economist and commentator, Colm McCarthy.
Green Party leader, Eamon Ryan, points out that the real culprit behind our high utility bills is our “uniquely disbursed” patterns of settlement.
“We are paying for all these wires and not just the power they carry,” he said.
But the road ahead to a reduced carbon future could be bumpy.
The switch to electric cars could prove transformative on several
fronts, but some experts estimate
that it will lead to a one quarter
increase in electricity consumption.
A big positive is that technology is playing a major part in reducing the cost of renewable energy, with the emergence of new carbon storage
technologies. Farming-related Co2 emissions are a particular issue for Ireland which has been pressing ahead with a policy of output expansion that threatens to clash with its climate action commitments.
Food Wise 2025 projects Irish agri-
exports to grow to €19bn a year by 2025. This represents a rise of 85% on the
current three year average. Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan has warned against a ‘produce at all cost
approach’.
Recent growth in Irish milk production is the “opposite of heeding market signals,” he has said.
He has also pointed out that in the
recently published Climate Change
performance indicator, Ireland had fallen to 49th place out of 56 countries. Ireland was, according to Mr Hogan, “sleepwalking towards further EU fines by our lack of investment in the energy grid.”
And farmers will face a changed, ‘greener’ CAP regime. “The agricultural sector needs to urgently step up to the plate,” Mr Hogan, who has shifted towards a pro-environment position, perhaps influenced by continental European colleagues, said.
According to Alan Matthews, economist and member of the Climate Change Commission, a ‘carbon tax signal’ should be sent to farmers in the form of a tax on excessive emissions and/or subsidies to farmers who sequester, or store, carbon on their land.
The key here is that carrots should be on offer as well as sticks. Mr Matthews also proposes incentives for producers who improve efficiency through better grassland management, feed efficiency and the greater use of cover crops.
Teagasc is already carrying out extensive research examining the potential of carbon sinks, such as forests. They believe that there is potential to cut net emissions by 25% to 35% using ‘carbon sinks’.
However, there is plenty of resistance, not least amongst farmers, who consider afforestation to be an admission of failure.
In truth, we need more younger farmers and this will require not simply more incentives but an alteration in
the balance of power between suppliers and large retailers, something which Mr Hogan, for one, has identified as a priority.
The country is beginning to wake up to the challenge of providing an environmentally sustainable future. However, events on both the weather and the EU financial front are moving with rapidity.
Can the people be persuaded of the need to step up the pace of adaptation before the really large bills fall due?