CLEVELAND, Ohio — Guardians fans and subscribers to Subtext came in with their season win total predictions just ahead of opening day. Some picked Cleveland to finish in first place with 94 wins, others had the Guards closer to the .500 mark.
On Thursday’s podcast, Paul Hoynes and Joe Noga give their predictions for Cleveland’s win total and where the Guardians will finish in the AL Central Division race, and they break down some predictions from fans, from the outlandish to the perpetually optimistic.
Listen and read along with an AI-generated transcript of the podcast below.
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Read the automated transcript of today’s podcast below. Because it’s a computer-generated transcript, it may contain errors and misspellings.
Joe Noga 0:04Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast.I’m Joe noga. Joined by Paul Hoynes from Kansas City. Hoines.You the best 3 words in baseball.It’s opening day.You know, feels good to say him every year, but this year it just feels like it.It took forever to get back.After losing to the Yankees in the ALCS in five games last year, the Guardians finally ready to make another run at it as they open up in Kansas City.Tanner Bibee versus Cole Reagan’s today.Just the excitement of another opening day for you. I think this is number 42.
Paul Hoynes 0:42Yeah, 42 Joe, I I lost count a long time ago.But yeah, it’s it’s opening day is always is always great.It’s always a little bit different than than than the next 161 to follow.There’s a little different vibe to it, and you know, you could feel it building in the clubhouse yesterday and during the workout at Kauffman Stadium.Definitely, definitely a little tingle in the air today.
Joe Noga 1:10Well, I really the barometer there I guess is what was Jose Ramirez acting like in the clubhouse when when you had a chance to get in there during the workout yesterday?Because if if he’s bouncing around the room, you know, slapping guys on the back and and and talking loud.That’s a good sign that the energy’s in a good place for this team.
Paul Hoynes 1:31Yeah. We talked to Jose.He came over.We talked to him for, you know, probably one of the longest interviews he’s ever had, as a as a guardian.He came over, gave me a hug.I almost passed out.We gave me a hug.I thought he was gonna, like, punch me in the chin or something, but yeah, he was in a good mood and he’s he’s excited about this team, excited about the chances they have in the Yale central.And he’s determined Joe, to.Really go after that 4040 that he just missed last year, mainly because of a rain out on the last day of the season.
Joe Noga 2:09Yeah, it it.It just seems like you know, you ask him about that kind of stuff, and now’s the time maybe to ask him about that before the the games get underway and talking about personal goals and stuff, because once once the season starts and and everything’s going J.Sort of reverts to that team first mentality and you know it’s in the back of his mind. The entire season is chasing that that 4040 goal.But Jose thinks he can go go beyond that.
Paul Hoynes 2:38Yeah, it was. It was great.Zack Meisel of the of the athletic asked Jose about 4040, and Jose said that was a goal of his.And then Zack said, what about 5050?And Jose said, hey, I do 100 and 100 if I could, but baseball is not that easy.And so that was that was that, that was pretty good.That was a pretty good comeback by Jose.He was in a good mood.
Joe Noga 3:08That’s, you know, great to see or great to hear that, that he’s doing well and and and I think this is a setup to be a good season for him because he’s got a sort of a security blanket there.You know, he’s got a travel buddy.He’s got a a, A.Familiar face and Carlos Santana.I think that’s going to help him feel comfortable and settle in early, you know, look for Jose to have a a hot start because he’s going to be feeling comfortable with his.His running mate by his side.
Paul Hoynes 3:40Definitely. I think you know, he said.You know, with Carlos Santana being 39 or turning 39 on April 8th, the home opener, it makes him feel younger at 32, so.But he said he’s glad to to have his brother back.On the team and just excited about the younger players that they have and and Joe, I thought one of the most revealing things was people, you know, he was asked about hitting #2 in the lineup.And as you remember, last year Steven Voge the subject with them, you know, Ramirez agreed, but only started six games in a number two spot.And you’ll spend in the bulk of the season in the number three spot. This year. Looks like he’s definitely going to spend more time in the number two spot. And he said that was fine with him.He said they really didn’t have to convince him he was.He wanted to do what was best for the team and all it took was a couple conversations.
Joe Noga 4:39Yeah. And you know more at bats, more plate appearances, more opportunities to drive in, runs, more opportunities to be on base and and and steal bases and get in scoring position.I think it benefits the team in a lot of ways. If if Jose moves up to that number two spot, but you got to have the lineup around you to to, you know, to make it effective. Lane Thomas looks like he’s going to be the guy hitting third.The majority of the time behind him.So that’s gotta, you know, it’s gotta make things nice for for Thomas.Maybe he’ll see a few more fastballs.
Paul Hoynes 5:17Yeah, definitely those, those top three hitters.It’s really kind of a unique.You know relationship, you know, if you got Kwan a left-handed hitter, then you’ve got Ramirez, the switch hitter, then lane Thomas, right-handed hitter and you know Carlos Santana behind them.Another switch hitter. So you know that’s that’s, you know, kind of a little bit of a minefield for the opposing pitcher to get through. And it offers, you know, not only some protection for Jose.But you’re right, it sets Thomas up as well.
Joe Noga 5:50Yeah. And if you put, you know, depending on left-handed or right-handed starter, you can put Kyle Manzardo behind Santana. You can put John Kenzie, Noel behind Carlos Santana in that that #5 spot. Depending on how you want to construct the lineup for Steven, vote so.A lot of options there for sure.Also, Nolan Jones first chance to to really talk to him.Since he came over in the trade, would you take away from Nolan Jones and what he had to say?
Paul Hoynes 6:21Yeah. We talked to Nolan.You know? He said.We, we.I asked him.You know, is this where you opened last?The last time you made your big league debut with Cleveland a couple years ago.And he goes, yeah, it was in Kansas City, in fact, he said.I think I’m in the same locker as I was in Kansas City that day.And so he was excited to be back. He said he he’s healthy.His back is feeling good, his knees feeling good, and he kind of told an interesting story.We touched on it earlier, Joe a couple days ago, but you know, last Saturday when he he was scheduled to be an Iraqi starting lineup, they had a split squad day that day and you know a little bit before the game he was told, hey, we’re pulling you.Out of the lineup, you’re getting traded.We can’t tell you where just yet.And Jones was kind of stunned. He, he said.I wandered the halls at at the facility.The The Rockies facility for about 45 minutes.Wondering what was going on. He was trying to go through his head.Where? Where he was getting traded and he goes. I headed down to 28 teams.I figured I wasn’t going back.I knew I wasn’t going back to Colorado and I knew it wasn’t going to be Cleveland because they already traded me.And so he called his best.One of his best buddies, Sam Hankis with Cleveland and I couldn’t get ahold of him, and then he facetimed.Tyler Tyler freeman.Another good friend from his minor league days with Cleveland and Tyler got on the, you know, got on the call and he was crying, you know, because he said I just got traded and and and, you know, Joan said, yeah. Well, I just got traded and I think.And and Freeman goes, I don’t know where I’m going.He goes well. I think I got a pretty good idea where you’re going.
Joe Noga 8:11Yeah, it’s just a crazy that those guys had been teammates and, you know, so closely linked together all through their, you know, trip through the minors and then all of a sudden, they wind up getting traded for each other. That that’s you got to be a weird feeling.But certainly just to be able to to call each other up and, you know, commiserate during that time.Would have been, you know, a positive for for Jones.What’s his outlook in terms of, you know?How often he can play, how often they told him he’s gonna play in.In what situations?
Paul Hoynes 8:45Well, I think he’s, you know, he definitely is going to play be in right field.I don’t know if with the lefty going with Kansas City today, I don’t know if he’s going to be in the starting lineup.We’ll have to see how that goes, but Reagan’s has, you know, kind of reverse splits.You know, he does a better job against righties and lefties, so perhaps he’ll be in the lineup. But he said he’ll spend most of the time in right field, but he also.Said he can play third.You know he can play the other outfield spots.But he thought most of it. If he does play, it’ll probably be maybe a third base, maybe in, but most of the time would be in right field.
Joe Noga 9:23Yeah, I gotta admit, he plays first base as well. Correct? He does have.
Paul Hoynes 9:25Yeah. First base. Yeah. You see? Yeah.
Joe Noga 9:27So I mean, you would give a guy like, you know, schneeman or Arius, the the opportunity to play over at third on days when they get Jose off his feet. As you know we we don’t know what the plan is for for rotating guys through the DH spot.But, but we’ll see as far as where Jones ends up.The other big news coming out yesterday or actually late last night.Early this morning, the guardians made agreements with all their cable TV providers and games will be carried locally on cable channels. The guide has come out in terms of the you know what channel numbers they are. You go to Cleveland, Com or Cle guardians com to find out.Where your provider?Is able to what channels you’re gonna be on.For me it’s it’s gonna stay the same.I have DIRECTV stream at home and games will be on channel 662 just like they were last year.So not a lot of changes.But they weren’t kidding when they they said they were going down to the wire with these these cable deals announcing them early this morning, right on opening day.So for a lot of people who I guess were holding their breath wondering whether or not they had to, you know, pay for the the streaming package or if the games were gonna show up on their cable provider.The Guardians and Major League Baseball came through with those deals today.
Paul Hoynes 10:58Yeah. Thank God, Joe.I mean, what a process this has been.I think they could have handled this a little better.I don’t know.You know, if you go down to like 2 hours before opening day or the first pitch and you still don’t know where, you can watch your favorite team on TV, how many emails did you get about people saying, you know, I’ve watched the guard, the Indians slash guard.On TV for 50 years now, you’re telling me I can’t?I won’t be able to watch them.What am I going to do all summer?I mean, people were going crazy, so I’m glad they got this.This figured out.Hopefully this is not a process.We have to go through again.
Joe Noga 11:33Yeah, well.Something tells me that eventually there there is going to be another process and we’ll have to go through this whole thing again when they they find a more permanent solution to their, you know, their broadcast rights and all that.
Paul Hoynes 11:44Right.
Joe Noga 11:47But for now, for this year, it’s it’s over with.I think a lot of the problem stemmed from Major League Baseball taking over the broadcast and distribution.So they were the ones doing the negotiating between the cable companies.The guardians.We’re sort of sitting there with their hands tied, saying, you know, we we wanna get all of this information out to our our fans and our viewers. But you know, Major League Baseball and the cable companies dragging their feet with the negotiations and everything took a little longer.Than it would have. The club would have liked to have had it wrapped up a lot earlier than it did.Just let me run through the the list here.Spectrum viewers can watch on channel 306.Or channel 1306.At and Tu verse, customers can watch on channel 736 or 1736.You can also find on Cox Channel 80 and DIRECTV channel 662.You can also sign up for fubo and watch on Fubo TV as well.The Guardians will be on there.I don’t have a channel number right now for fubo so.Different ways and then.Again, if you’re a cord cutter, if you don’t have cable, you can still go to cleguardians.tv.It’s $99.00 for the entire season 9999 for the entire season.There is a 7 day free trial.And and a monthly option as well.So, you know, take a look there, but to have this to have the the answers for this, this TV situation all cleared up, certainly a big relief for a lot of people.Like you said.That leads us to the the pitching matchups for for today’s game.You briefly touched on Cole.Reagan’s, you know, the the guy that I believe he had his his contract extended in the offseason.They they, you know, gave him a couple more years and a couple more $1,000,000, but last season 2 starts against the the Guardians. He was on one.
Paul Hoynes 13:58Yeah, it was Owen one.Joe had a had a decent year, I believe 11 and 10 era under four and you know, did a good job for them.They got him from Texas and you know, it was kind of a in a mid season trade a couple years ago.Now he’s their number one starter.On a, you know, a very, very good starting rotation.
Joe Noga 14:23Yeah, they they did.That starting rotation has enough depth that they were able to trade away Brady Singer, a guy that they had drafted and and developed. He gets traded to Cincinnati for Jonathan India.So that you put a guy at the top of the lineup who can get on base and and maybe provide a a few more opportunities for Bobby Witt junior to drive him in.That’s the the strategy there for Kansas City.Meanwhile, Tanner Bibee made four starts against the Royals last year.It came out of it with A2 and O record.
Paul Hoynes 14:56Yeah. Bibi went 12:00 and 8:00 last year, 3.47 breakout year for him and like, like Reagan’s, he signed an extension.But a much bigger extension and a longer extension than Reagan’s. Did you know what? What?Five years, 48 million with a club option for a fifth year. He’s making his first opening day start and he’s more than familiar with.The with the with the you know the Royals.As you said, Joe.
Joe Noga 15:27Yeah, it’s a familiar matchup.A familiar location and hopefully that.Gets rid of the opening day jitters sooner rather than later for Tanner Bibee as he steps out on the mound today.All right, now we come to my least favorite part of opening day and this whole exercise of predicting win totals and and finishes for this team. It always goes badly for me.Never. You know when when I think they’re going to win, you know, a certain number.Games, they come in below my expectations and then when I try to be reasonable and set my expectations a little lower, the team always plays with a chip on their shoulder.I remember last season the final interview with Austin Hedges sort of staring, basically staring a hole through my head as after I predicted them to win 75 games and they wound up winning 92 and going all the way to the.Alcs.So never a good thing to to predict low I guess.If that’s the case, Hoynes. What was your prediction for their final record and their their place in the American League Central?
Paul Hoynes 16:42Joe, I’ve got him finished in 88 and 74. Second place in the division with a chance to make a wild card.I think Kansas City’s a little better than them I look.I foresee Kansas City.And and Cleveland really kind of, you know, kind of duking it out the whole season, especially down the stretch.I think Detroit and the twins will make it interesting, but I think those are the top two teams in the division.I think I like Kansas City a little bit more just because of the experience and the depth of the rotation and their offense.
Joe Noga 17:19Yeah, the injury situation for both Detroit and Minnesota sort of unclear right now.I it really depends for Minnesota on their big three of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis staying healthy and playing as many games as they can together.And Detroit also dealing with a few uncertainties in their lineup as well.I really do see it coming down to the Royals.And Guardians, I don’t think the AL Central is getting three teams into the postseason this year like they did last year.A lot of other teams improved as well.I think Boston’s going to factor into how many teams from the East get get into the postseason and, you know, I think Texas is going to be a very good team in the West this year, depending on the health of Jacob Begaram.I have him down.I have the guardians down for.83 and 79 missing the wild card, but competing for the wild card, right down to the the last week or so of the season.And I have been in 3rd place in the American League Central behind the Royals and the the Tigers this year with the Twins 4th and the White Sox 5th so.You know, don’t hold me to it.We’ll do a podcast sometime in October and see see how these.Predictions came through, but we did ask our subtext. Subscribers on Guardian subtext to give us their predictions.For the the the final record this season and where they would finish in the the standings. Hoynes. Our subtext subscribers are a lot more optimistic than than we are in in.In several cases I’ve seen, predictions here win totals as high as 94. You know 2 two games better than last year.Uh, what do you think about the eternal optimism of our fans and our readers?Heading into the the season.
Paul Hoynes 19:29I love it, Joe.I love the to hear the different predictions, the different viewpoints of view, and I love the enthusiasm. You know, if it’s one you to be a fan, you’ve got to really you have to.You have to be the an extremist, you know. You’ve got to love, love, the team you’re rooting for or hate the team.You’re rooting for. You can’t be neutral.Neutral fans mean franchise is in trouble.And that’s never been.Well, it’s not.This has not been the case.With the guardian slash Indians for the last 10 or 15 years, we get, you know, there is a there’s a lot of opinions out there and you know when EM love em or or you know, love EM or hate em, you know that’s that those are the kind.
Joe Noga 20:07Yep.
Paul Hoynes 20:15Of fans you want.
Joe Noga 20:16The word you’re looking for there is polarizing.I think it’s it’s exactly what this this club is and these fans are all right.
Paul Hoynes 20:18Yes.
Joe Noga 20:24So our subtech subscribers, you can go on cleveland.com/subtext to sign up for Guardian subtext.It’s 399 a month to subscribe.You get updates from Hoynes and from me sent directly to your phone.You skip social media.You don’t have to look on Twitter, you can just get the info texted directly to you and the chance to share your opinions like.Like like what your prediction is with us. And then maybe we’ll read them on our podcast.And that’s what we’re gonna do now.We’re gonna go through some of these predictions that were sent in to us.Start with Mike from Houston, TX.He predicted a record of 94 and 68.He thinks the coaching in front office.Are a little bit smart and and that people don’t give him as much credit as they should. Most national folks can’t identify that on paper, and that’s where the the Guardians are gonna have an advantage.They’re starting.Pitching should be better, and he thinks the.The the acquisition of Nolan Jones could be a game changer. He’s very optimistic.Another submission our our friend Bob Maestros from Lake Worth, FL, also has them for 94 wins. First place in the central.Steven Voge builds on his learning years, learning from Rick. You know his rookie year as manager.The rotation takes a big step forward, according to Bob here.And you know when Shane Beaver comes back?That’s going to help a repeat performance by the best bullpen in baseball, and Carlos Santana will help cultivate the potential of guys like Kyle Manzardo, John Kenzie Noel and Brian Rocchio and Bone Naylor.So Bob Maistoros also with 94 wins, do you think what do you think a 94 wins for this team, do you think they can be better record wise than they were last year?
Paul Hoynes 22:22Wow, Joe, that’s that’s a lot of wins.That’s that’s a lot of wins.You’re you’re talking about a serious ball club that can win 94 games, Joe.I think a big part of it will be how they start the season.You know, they had that great start last year.I think they have through may they were like 38 and 19. If they get off to a start like that and it began with this long, you know, road trip to to open the season, I think they went 7:00 and 2:00 on that last year if if.
Joe Noga 22:50Right.
Paul Hoynes 22:50They if they come home.With the.With a you know a good record from this trip, I think they could be in position to do that.I just think the the division has gotten much, much better.I think that’s going to weigh them down a little bit.
Joe Noga 23:05Yeah, it’s a far cry from the the the days of Tito Francona when you pretty much pencil this team in for a slow start in April and then picking things up and and and really playing tough around the the All Star break and and thereafter. So jumping back.Into it. John from Westfield center. OH says it’s his 70th season following the team.And his his prediction is a little bit more down to Earth.He said a losing season of 80 and 82 and a third place finish is his prediction. You know, a little bit of.Sort of to balance out the the 94 win crew, I think a losing season.Record wise is it’s definitely a possibility.
Paul Hoynes 23:54Yeah. You know, I think it could happen, Joe, but I think this team is is better than people think.I.I really do.I I get the impression that the rotation is taking a big step forward. Of course I gotta stay healthy, but I’d I’d like to rotation a lot more than than last season at this time.I like the way they took care of the bullpen during spring training.Those are the core four of those guys.You know they slow play them.They made sure they got plenty of rest.From last year and I think the offense is going to be a little, you know, better.I’d like the top four hitters, you know, but the key to me is, you know, the the next 5 hitters.Who you know at the, you know from 5 through 9 what those guys do, they got to have a couple guys have big seasons.
Joe Noga 24:42Bruce in North Olmsted.He’s back on the 94 wind train and a division title for this this team, he says.The pitching is improved. The young hitters like Manzardo and Bo Naylor should step up.So 94 wins for Bruce.Kevin in mentor picks the Guardians to finish first in the division with 91 wins, ahead of the Royals, twins and tigers.He says Chicago in 5th place.Chicago has good pizza.And that’s about it. And and I would argue, Kevin.That Chicago pizza isn’t all that great. It’s.
Paul Hoynes 25:19You don’t like deep dish Pizza, Joe?
Joe Noga 25:22You know, I I’m. I’m just saying it’s the the sauce isn’t supposed to be on top.I I just.I don’t get it.
Paul Hoynes 25:29Ha ha ha.
Joe Noga 25:31Carl in Las Vegas predicts 86 wins and and and and here he says a A4 way tie for first place.Well, they have tie Breakers now, Carl, so.
Paul Hoynes 25:39Whoa.
Joe Noga 25:41So there is no four way tie I guess.Brendan in Shadyside. OH.Says his most outrageous prediction.This isn’t about a record, he says.Logan Allen’s going to pull off a Cliff Lee and win the Cy Young Award this year.So what do you what do you think about that?
Paul Hoynes 25:58Wow, I like it.I like a left-hander.Out of nowhere, lefty like Cliff Lee, yeah.Interesting. A very interesting call right there.
Joe Noga 26:13Elvaro in McAllen, TX.He texted in and said the Guardians will win 90 games and finish in first place.This is from Bill, in Peoria, AZ, he says.I think the guards are A500 team this year. Lack of offseason moves did not improve the team overall.Given the improvements by other teams in the division, don’t see him finishing higher than third. Once again, the team and the fans are being H hmm.By tight fisted owners, and I guess.It’s the the same old narrative for for some of these these folks, in terms of the the ownership, but the the front office is doing the best they can with this, with what they’ve got.Bill, in Peoria, has them at at a 500 team.I don’t see a a win total here, but.And Gary from Columbus.Garry’s got some some big predictions here. 91 wins.First place in the division ahead of the Tigers and they pull off the greatest upset in MLB history by beating Otani and the La Gazillionaire Blue Bloods in seven games.Jose winning ALMVP and World Series MVP, so this is this is Gary from Columbus coming in with the Ultimate Dream scenario season for the Guardians.
Paul Hoynes 27:35That’s the mic drop, Joe.
Joe Noga 27:38Yeah.
Paul Hoynes 27:38Hey, you know the they made the final four last year and every the other three teams all had $300 million payrolls.The Guardians were right around 98 to 100 million, so anything is possible.
Joe Noga 27:52Yeah, anything is possible.And today’s the the ultimate example of that hoynsie. We will check back in with you again to recap opening day and look forward to the next 161 games. On Friday morning, we’ll talk to you then.
Paul Hoynes 28:09Good deal, Joe.